Prediction Audit: Sepahan FC vs Gol Gohar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sepahan FC

Aug 28, 2026 - 16:00

2 1.42

0 1.18

xG Accuracy: 62%

Gol Gohar

AI correctly predicted the Sepahan FC win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sepahan FC Sepahan FC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sepahan FC	40.9%	50.9%	-10.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	29.5%	-0.1 pp	Aligned
Gol Gohar	29.7%	19.6%	+10.1 pp	Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Gol Gohar's win probability at 29.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.6%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sepahan FC win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Gol Gohar.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sepahan FC more conservatively (30.8% vs model 40.9%, 10.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sepahan FC win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 28, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sepahan FC 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Gol Gohar 29.6%
- xG · Sepahan FC 1.42 — Gol Gohar 1.18
Aug 28, 2026 · 15:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sepahan FC 1.77 · Draw 3.05 · Gol Gohar 4.60
- Implied 1X2 · Sepahan FC 50.9% · Draw 29.5% · Gol Gohar 19.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 28, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sepahan FC 1.77 · Draw 3.05 · Gol Gohar 4.60
- Implied 1X2 · Sepahan FC 50.9% · Draw 29.5% · Gol Gohar 19.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Sepahan FC win · 2–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (10 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100

Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 02:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4930069

Closing Odds 4.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Sepahan FC win · Sepahan FC 2–0 Gol Gohar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Persian Gulf Pro League
Fixture: Sepahan FC vs Gol Gohar
Kickoff: 2026-08-28 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): Sepahan FC 1.42 — Gol Gohar 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Persian Gulf Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tractor Sazi	7	5	1	1	16
2	Esteghlal FC	7	4	3	0	15
3	Persepolis FC	6	4	1	1	13
4	Aluminium Arak	6	3	3	0	12
5	Sepahan FC	6	3	1	2	10
6	Gol Gohar	7	3	1	3	10
7	Foolad FC	6	2	3	1	9
8	Paykan	7	2	2	3	8
9	Nassaji Mazandaran	7	2	2	3	8
10	Chadormalu SC	7	2	2	3	8
11	Fajr Sepasi	6	1	4	1	7
12	Malavan	6	2	1	3	7
13	Kheybar Khorramabad	6	1	3	2	6
14	ZOB Ahan	6	1	3	2	6
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	7	1	3	3	6
16	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	1	2	4	5
17	Mes Shahr-e Babak	7	0	5	2	5
18	Sanat Naft	7	0	4	3	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	6	12	3	+9	13
2	Esteghlal FC	7	9	1	+8	15
3	Tractor Sazi	7	8	1	+7	16
4	Aluminium Arak	6	8	3	+5	12
5	Kheybar Khorramabad	6	8	8	0	6
6	Gol Gohar	7	7	7	0	10
7	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	6	9	-3	5
8	Foolad FC	6	5	3	+2	9
9	Sepahan FC	6	5	4	+1	10
10	Paykan	7	5	6	-1	8
11	Malavan	6	5	8	-3	7
12	Mes Shahr-e Babak	7	5	10	-5	5
13	Nassaji Mazandaran	7	4	6	-2	8
14	Chadormalu SC	7	4	9	-5	8
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	7	4	9	-5	6
16	Fajr Sepasi	6	3	3	0	7
17	ZOB Ahan	6	3	5	-2	6
18	Sanat Naft	7	2	8	-6	4