The model missed the final outcome (Zaqatala win 3–0).
The model had projected Baku Sportinq at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Baku Sportinq Zaqatala ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaqatala | 29.2% | 27.5% | +1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 24.3% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Baku Sportinq | 41.4% | 48.2% | -6.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Baku Sportinq's win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Zaqatala win 3–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Baku Sportinq. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Baku Sportinq; match finished Zaqatala
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Baku Sportinq by 6.8 percentage points (48.2% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zaqatala 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Baku Sportinq 41.4%
- xG · Zaqatala 1.17 — Baku Sportinq 1.43
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Zaqatala 3.23 · Draw 3.66 · Baku Sportinq 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · Zaqatala 27.5% · Draw 24.3% · Baku Sportinq 48.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Zaqatala 3.23 · Draw 3.66 · Baku Sportinq 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · Zaqatala 27.5% · Draw 24.3% · Baku Sportinq 48.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Zaqatala win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Birinci Dasta — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Karvan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Energetik | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Karvan | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Zaqatala | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Səbail | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | MOIK | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Energetik | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 8 | Şimal | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
