The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Al-Ittihad FC at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Al-Ittihad FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shamal | 31.9% | 23.3% | +8.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.9% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Al-Ittihad FC | 38.5% | 52.8% | -14.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Al-Ittihad FC's win probability at 52.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Al-Ittihad FC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Al-Ittihad FC; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al-Ittihad FC by 14.3 percentage points (52.8% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Shamal 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Al-Ittihad FC 38.5%
- xG · Al Shamal 1.23 — Al-Ittihad FC 1.37
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Shamal 4.08 · Draw 3.97 · Al-Ittihad FC 1.80
- Implied 1X2 · Al Shamal 23.3% · Draw 23.9% · Al-Ittihad FC 52.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Shamal 4.08 · Draw 3.97 · Al-Ittihad FC 1.80
- Implied 1X2 · Al Shamal 23.3% · Draw 23.9% · Al-Ittihad FC 52.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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AFC Champions League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Neftchi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Wasl FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Tractor Sazi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Neftchi | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Wasl FC | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Tractor Sazi | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 6 | Neftchi | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 7 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 10 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Wasl FC | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 14 | Tractor Sazi | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
