The model missed the final outcome (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win 1–0).
The model had projected Tractor Sazi at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Tractor Sazi Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 33.8% | 53.4% | -19.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.6% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Tractor Sazi | 36.6% | 21.0% | +15.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's win probability at 53.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 19.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Shabab Al Ahli Dubai than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tractor Sazi by 19.6 percentage points (56.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Tractor Sazi 36.6%
- xG · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.27 — Tractor Sazi 1.33
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.78 · Draw 3.71 · Tractor Sazi 4.53
- Implied 1X2 · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 53.4% · Draw 25.6% · Tractor Sazi 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.78 · Draw 3.71 · Tractor Sazi 4.53
- Implied 1X2 · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 53.4% · Draw 25.6% · Tractor Sazi 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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AFC Champions League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Neftchi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Wasl FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Tractor Sazi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Neftchi | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Wasl FC | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Tractor Sazi | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 6 | Neftchi | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 7 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 10 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Wasl FC | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 14 | Tractor Sazi | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
