Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie D / Sao Jose vs Goiatuba EC

Prediction Audit: Sao Jose vs Goiatuba EC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sao Jose Sao Jose
Aug 26, 2026 - 22:00
0 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 49%
Goiatuba EC Goiatuba EC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Sao Jose at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sao Jose Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Draw -6.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sao Jose 36.6% 36.3% +0.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 36.3% -6.7 pp Market Higher
Goiatuba EC 33.8% 27.3% +6.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 36.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Sao Jose; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sao Jose by 6.7 percentage points (43.3% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 26, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sao Jose 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Goiatuba EC 33.8%
    • xG · Sao Jose 1.33 — Goiatuba EC 1.27
  2. Aug 26, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sao Jose 2.46 · Draw 2.56 · Goiatuba EC 3.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Sao Jose 36.8% · Draw 35.4% · Goiatuba EC 27.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 26, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sao Jose 2.52 · Draw 2.52 · Goiatuba EC 3.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Sao Jose 36.3% · Draw 36.3% · Goiatuba EC 27.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 26, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 66/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 03:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4680532

Closing Odds 2.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sao Jose 0–0 Goiatuba EC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D
  • Fixture: Sao Jose vs Goiatuba EC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-26 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Sao Jose 1.33 — Goiatuba EC 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D Serie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manauara 10 6 4 0 22
2 Nacional AM 10 6 2 2 20
3 Sao Raimundo 10 3 4 3 13
4 Monte Roraima 10 2 4 4 10
5 Manaus FC 10 2 4 4 10
6 GAS 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nacional AM 10 15 9 +6 20
2 Manauara 10 13 5 +8 22
3 Monte Roraima 10 11 14 -3 10
4 Sao Raimundo 10 10 7 +3 13
5 Manaus FC 10 8 13 -5 10
6 GAS 10 8 17 -9 5