The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Santa Lucía at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Santa Lucía Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Andrews | 33.3% | 32.4% | +0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.2% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Santa Lucía | 37.1% | 41.4% | -4.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Santa Lucía; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · St. Andrews 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Santa Lucía 37.0%
- xG · St. Andrews 1.26 — Santa Lucía 1.34
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · St. Andrews 2.75 · Draw 3.40 · Santa Lucía 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · St. Andrews 32.4% · Draw 26.2% · Santa Lucía 41.4%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · St. Andrews 2.75 · Draw 3.40 · Santa Lucía 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · St. Andrews 32.4% · Draw 26.2% · Santa Lucía 41.4%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Challenge League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Victoria Hotspurs | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Fgura United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Vittoriosa Stars | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Swieqi United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Sirens | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Melita | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Naxxar Lions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Pietà Hotspurs | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Mgarr United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Attard | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | St. Andrews | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Zurrieq | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Gudja United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Zebbug Rangers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Swieqi United | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Victoria Hotspurs | 2 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Fgura United | 2 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 4 |
| 5 | Naxxar Lions | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Pietà Hotspurs | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Melita | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Attard | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 9 | Mgarr United | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Vittoriosa Stars | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 11 | Sirens | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | Santa Lucía | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Zurrieq | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | St. Andrews | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
