The model missed the final outcome (Al Jazeera win 0–5).
The model had projected Al Hussein at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Al Hussein Al Jazeera ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-5 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hussein | 46.8% | 78.7% | -31.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.6% | 14.4% | +14.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Al Jazeera | 24.5% | 6.9% | +17.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Al Hussein's win probability at 78.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.8%, a difference of 31.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Al Jazeera win 0–5.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al Hussein by 31.9 percentage points (78.7% vs model 46.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Hussein 46.8% · Draw 28.7% · Al Jazeera 24.6%
- xG · Al Hussein 1.54 — Al Jazeera 1.06
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Hussein 1.14 · Draw 6.25 · Al Jazeera 13.00
- Implied 1X2 · Al Hussein 78.7% · Draw 14.4% · Al Jazeera 6.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Hussein 1.14 · Draw 6.25 · Al Jazeera 13.00
- Implied 1X2 · Al Hussein 78.7% · Draw 14.4% · Al Jazeera 6.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al Jazeera win · 0–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (32 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Faisaly | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Ramtha | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Jazeera | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Al Salt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Buqa'a | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Shabab Al Ordon | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Doqarah | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Wihdat | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 9 | Al Hussein | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Faisaly | 3 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Jazeera | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 5 |
| 3 | Shabab Al Ordon | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Al Ramtha | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Salt | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Al Hussein | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2 |
| 7 | Doqarah | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Buqa'a | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Arabi | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Al Wihdat | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
