Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Tacuary vs 3 de Noviembre

Prediction Audit: Tacuary vs 3 de Noviembre Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tacuary Tacuary
Aug 23, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
3 de Noviembre 3 de Noviembre

AI correctly predicted the 3 de Noviembre win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 3 de Noviembre 3 de Noviembre ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates 3 de Noviembre considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: 3 de Noviembre +8.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tacuary 34.7% 40.9% -6.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 31.9% -2.2 pp Aligned
3 de Noviembre 35.6% 27.2% +8.4 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates 3 de Noviembre's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.2%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (3 de Noviembre win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on 3 de Noviembre.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 3 de Noviembre more conservatively (27.2% vs model 35.6%, 8.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (3 de Noviembre win 0–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tacuary 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · 3 de Noviembre 35.6%
    • xG · Tacuary 1.29 — 3 de Noviembre 1.31
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tacuary 2.13 · Draw 2.79 · 3 de Noviembre 3.29
    • Implied 1X2 · Tacuary 41.5% · Draw 31.7% · 3 de Noviembre 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tacuary 2.20 · Draw 2.82 · 3 de Noviembre 3.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Tacuary 40.9% · Draw 31.9% · 3 de Noviembre 27.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result 3 de Noviembre win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 00:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4446742

Closing Odds 3.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result 3 de Noviembre win · Tacuary 0–1 3 de Noviembre
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Tacuary vs 3 de Noviembre
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Tacuary 1.29 — 3 de Noviembre 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Division Intermedia Matches Track Tacuary Next Match Prediction Track 3 de Noviembre Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Tacuary & 3 de Noviembre!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 26 16 3 7 51
2 General Caballero 26 15 5 6 50
3 12 de Junio VH 26 14 7 5 49
4 Benjamín Aceval 26 12 6 8 42
5 SOL DE America 26 9 13 4 40
6 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 11 5 10 38
7 Independiente F.b.c. 26 9 10 7 37
8 Paraguari AC 25 10 5 10 35
9 Resistencia 26 8 8 10 32
10 Fernando De La Mora 25 8 7 10 31
11 Atlético Tembetary 25 8 6 11 30
12 Deportivo Capiata 26 6 10 10 28
13 3 de Noviembre 26 6 8 12 26
14 Guairena FC 25 6 7 12 25
15 Tacuary 26 4 12 10 24
16 Encarnación 26 6 4 16 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 26 52 33 +19 50
2 Deportivo Santani 26 45 25 +20 51
3 Benjamín Aceval 26 40 32 +8 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 26 37 33 +4 37
5 12 de Junio VH 26 35 26 +9 49
6 Paraguari AC 25 34 33 +1 35
7 Atlético Tembetary 25 34 39 -5 30
8 3 de Noviembre 26 33 39 -6 26
9 SOL DE America 26 32 24 +8 40
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 31 38 -7 38
11 Deportivo Capiata 26 30 36 -6 28
12 Resistencia 26 28 32 -4 32
13 Fernando De La Mora 25 28 35 -7 31
14 Tacuary 26 28 40 -12 24
15 Encarnación 26 25 36 -11 22
16 Guairena FC 25 22 33 -11 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions