The model missed the final outcome (Devonport City win 0–3).
The model had projected South Hobart at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 South Hobart Devonport City ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Hobart | 42.4% | 55.8% | -13.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 21.4% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Devonport City | 28.4% | 22.8% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates South Hobart's win probability at 55.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Devonport City win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about South Hobart than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on South Hobart by 13.4 percentage points (55.8% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · South Hobart 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Devonport City 28.4%
- xG · South Hobart 1.45 — Devonport City 1.15
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 03:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · South Hobart 1.59 · Draw 4.15 · Devonport City 3.89
- Implied 1X2 · South Hobart 55.8% · Draw 21.4% · Devonport City 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · South Hobart 1.59 · Draw 4.15 · Devonport City 3.89
- Implied 1X2 · South Hobart 55.8% · Draw 21.4% · Devonport City 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Devonport City win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tasmania NPL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 47 |
| 2 | Devonport City | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 43 |
| 3 | Kingborough Lions | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 43 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 31 |
| 5 | Clarence Zebras | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Riverside | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 7 | South East Utd. | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 18 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 18 | 65 | 16 | +49 | 47 |
| 2 | Devonport City | 18 | 56 | 19 | +37 | 43 |
| 3 | Kingborough Lions | 18 | 51 | 16 | +35 | 43 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 18 | 40 | 36 | +4 | 31 |
| 5 | Riverside | 18 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Clarence Zebras | 18 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 27 |
| 7 | South East Utd. | 18 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 21 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights | 18 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 17 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 18 | 17 | 61 | -44 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 18 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 4 |
