The model missed the final outcome (Kingborough Lions win 5–0).
The model had projected Launceston City at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Launceston City Kingborough Lions ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingborough Lions | 31.0% | 61.5% | -30.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 19.3% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Launceston City | 39.5% | 19.1% | +20.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Kingborough Lions's win probability at 61.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 30.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Kingborough Lions win 5–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Launceston City by 30.5 percentage points (70.0% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 06:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kingborough Lions 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Launceston City 39.5%
- xG · Kingborough Lions 1.21 — Launceston City 1.39
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 06:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kingborough Lions 1.46 · Draw 4.65 · Launceston City 4.69
- Implied 1X2 · Kingborough Lions 61.5% · Draw 19.3% · Launceston City 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 06:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kingborough Lions 1.46 · Draw 4.65 · Launceston City 4.69
- Implied 1X2 · Kingborough Lions 61.5% · Draw 19.3% · Launceston City 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 06:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kingborough Lions win · 5–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (30 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tasmania NPL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 47 |
| 2 | Devonport City | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 43 |
| 3 | Kingborough Lions | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 43 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 31 |
| 5 | Clarence Zebras | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Riverside | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 7 | South East Utd. | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 18 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 18 | 65 | 16 | +49 | 47 |
| 2 | Devonport City | 18 | 56 | 19 | +37 | 43 |
| 3 | Kingborough Lions | 18 | 51 | 16 | +35 | 43 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 18 | 40 | 36 | +4 | 31 |
| 5 | Riverside | 18 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Clarence Zebras | 18 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 27 |
| 7 | South East Utd. | 18 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 21 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights | 18 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 17 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 18 | 17 | 61 | -44 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 18 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 4 |
