The model missed the final outcome (Doma United win 2–0).
The model had projected Enyimba at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Enyimba Doma United ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doma United | 27.9% | 59.8% | -31.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.4% | +2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Enyimba | 42.9% | 13.8% | +29.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Doma United's win probability at 59.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.9%, a difference of 31.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Doma United win 2–0.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Enyimba by 31.9 percentage points (74.8% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Doma United 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Enyimba 42.9%
- xG · Doma United 1.14 — Enyimba 1.46
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Doma United 1.50 · Draw 3.40 · Enyimba 6.50
- Implied 1X2 · Doma United 59.8% · Draw 26.4% · Enyimba 13.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Doma United 1.50 · Draw 3.40 · Enyimba 6.50
- Implied 1X2 · Doma United 59.8% · Draw 26.4% · Enyimba 13.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Doma United win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (32 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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NPFL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barau FC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Rivers United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Plateau United | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Enugu Rangers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Doma United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Kano Pillars | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Bendel Insurance | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Ikorodu City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Abia Warriors | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Kwara United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Ranchers Bees | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Sporting Lagos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Warri Wolves | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Nasarawa United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Katsina United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 | Shooting Stars | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 17 | Niger Tornadoes | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | Kun Khalifat FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 19 | Inter Lagos | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 20 | Enyimba | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rivers United | 5 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 11 |
| 2 | Kano Pillars | 5 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 9 |
| 3 | Barau FC | 6 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | Plateau United | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 5 | Doma United | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Bendel Insurance | 6 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Ikorodu City | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Enugu Rangers | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Ranchers Bees | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Kwara United | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sporting Lagos | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Abia Warriors | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Nasarawa United | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Shooting Stars | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 15 | Niger Tornadoes | 6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Kun Khalifat FC | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Katsina United | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Warri Wolves | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Enyimba | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 20 | Inter Lagos | 6 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
