Predictions / Football / Albania. 1st Division / Bylis vs Sopoti Librazhd

Prediction Audit: Bylis vs Sopoti Librazhd Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bylis Bylis
Sep 05, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 85%
Sopoti Librazhd Sopoti Librazhd

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Bylis at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bylis Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Bylis; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 02:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bylis 1.38 — Sopoti Librazhd 1.22
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6150880

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Bylis 1–1 Sopoti Librazhd
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1st Division
  • Fixture: Bylis vs Sopoti Librazhd
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Bylis 1.38 — Sopoti Librazhd 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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1st Division 1st Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pogradeci 4 2 2 0 8
2 Besa Kavajë 4 2 1 1 7
3 Korabi Peshkopi 4 2 1 1 7
4 Iliria Fushë-Krujë 4 1 3 0 6
5 Bylis 4 1 3 0 6
6 FK Kukesi 4 2 0 2 6
7 Kastrioti Krujë 4 1 2 1 5
8 Burreli 4 1 2 1 5
9 Sopoti Librazhd 4 1 2 1 5
10 Besëlidhja Lezhë 4 1 1 2 4
11 Flamurtari 4 0 3 1 3
12 Oriku 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Besa Kavajë 4 13 5 +8 7
2 FK Kukesi 4 6 6 0 6
3 Pogradeci 4 5 1 +4 8
4 Iliria Fushë-Krujë 4 5 3 +2 6
5 Kastrioti Krujë 4 5 5 0 5
6 Burreli 4 5 6 -1 5
7 Sopoti Librazhd 4 5 7 -2 5
8 Bylis 4 4 3 +1 6
9 Korabi Peshkopi 4 4 5 -1 7
10 Flamurtari 4 4 5 -1 3
11 Besëlidhja Lezhë 4 3 5 -2 4
12 Oriku 4 1 9 -8 0
1st Division Albania. 1st Division Predictions