The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Burreli at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Burreli Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burreli | 36.1% | 54.1% | -18.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.1% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Kastrioti Krujë | 34.2% | 18.8% | +15.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Burreli's win probability at 54.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 18.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Burreli than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Burreli; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Burreli by 18.0 percentage points (54.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Burreli 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Kastrioti Krujë 34.2%
- xG · Burreli 1.32 — Kastrioti Krujë 1.28
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Burreli 1.65 · Draw 3.30 · Kastrioti Krujë 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Burreli 54.1% · Draw 27.1% · Kastrioti Krujë 18.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Burreli 1.65 · Draw 3.30 · Kastrioti Krujë 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Burreli 54.1% · Draw 27.1% · Kastrioti Krujë 18.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1st Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogradeci | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Besa Kavajë | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Korabi Peshkopi | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Bylis | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | FK Kukesi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Kastrioti Krujë | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Burreli | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Sopoti Librazhd | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Flamurtari | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Oriku | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 4 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 7 |
| 2 | FK Kukesi | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Pogradeci | 4 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Kastrioti Krujë | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Burreli | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Sopoti Librazhd | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | Bylis | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Flamurtari | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Oriku | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
