AI correctly predicted the Al Seeb win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Al Seeb Al Seeb ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Seeb | 44.3% | 69.5% | -25.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.0% | 18.8% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Sur | 26.6% | 11.7% | +14.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Al Seeb's win probability at 69.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 25.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Al Seeb win 2–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Al Seeb attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Al Seeb higher (69.5% vs model 44.3%, 25.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Al Seeb win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Seeb 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Sur 26.7%
- xG · Al Seeb 1.49 — Sur 1.11
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:09 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Seeb 1.30 · Draw 4.81 · Sur 7.73
- Implied 1X2 · Al Seeb 69.5% · Draw 18.8% · Sur 11.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Seeb 1.30 · Draw 4.81 · Sur 7.73
- Implied 1X2 · Al Seeb 69.5% · Draw 18.8% · Sur 11.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al Seeb win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (25 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Professional League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Seeb | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Al-Nahda | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Nasr | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Al-Shabab | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Oman Club | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Saham | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sohar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Ibri | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Smail | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Bahla | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Dhofar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Fanja | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Al Musannah | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Sur | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Shabab | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | Al Seeb | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Ibri | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 | Al-Nahda | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Nasr | 2 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 | Bahla | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Oman Club | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Saham | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Sur | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Sohar | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Smail | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dhofar | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Al Musannah | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Fanja | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
