The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Sohar at 44.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sohar Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sohar | 44.8% | 52.6% | -7.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 26.4% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Ibri | 26.2% | 21.0% | +5.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Sohar's win probability at 52.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Sohar. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Sohar; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Sohar by 7.8 percentage points (52.5% vs model 44.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sohar 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Ibri 26.2%
- xG · Sohar 1.50 — Ibri 1.10
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sohar 1.72 · Draw 3.42 · Ibri 4.31
- Implied 1X2 · Sohar 52.6% · Draw 26.4% · Ibri 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sohar 1.72 · Draw 3.42 · Ibri 4.31
- Implied 1X2 · Sohar 52.6% · Draw 26.4% · Ibri 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Professional League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Seeb | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Al-Nahda | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Nasr | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Al-Shabab | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Oman Club | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Saham | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sohar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Ibri | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Smail | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Bahla | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Dhofar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Fanja | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Al Musannah | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Sur | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Shabab | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | Al Seeb | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Ibri | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 | Al-Nahda | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Nasr | 2 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 | Bahla | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Oman Club | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Saham | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Sur | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Sohar | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Smail | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dhofar | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Al Musannah | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Fanja | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
