Prediction Audit: Al Kahrabaa vs Al Minaa Basra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Kahrabaa

Sep 13, 2026 - 15:45

2 1.26

1 1.34

xG Accuracy: 74%

Al Minaa Basra

The model missed the final outcome (Al Kahrabaa win 2–1).

The model had projected Al Minaa Basra at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Al Minaa Basra Al Kahrabaa ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Al Kahrabaa	33.3%	38.3%	-5.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	30.5%	-0.8 pp	Aligned
Al Minaa Basra	37.1%	31.2%	+5.8 pp	Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Al Minaa Basra's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.2%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Al Kahrabaa win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Al Minaa Basra.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Al Minaa Basra; match finished Al Kahrabaa

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al Minaa Basra by 5.8 percentage points (31.2% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 13, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Kahrabaa 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Al Minaa Basra 37.0%
- xG · Al Kahrabaa 1.26 — Al Minaa Basra 1.34
Sep 13, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Kahrabaa 2.32 · Draw 2.92 · Al Minaa Basra 2.85
- Implied 1X2 · Al Kahrabaa 38.3% · Draw 30.5% · Al Minaa Basra 31.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 13, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Kahrabaa 2.32 · Draw 2.92 · Al Minaa Basra 2.85
- Implied 1X2 · Al Kahrabaa 38.3% · Draw 30.5% · Al Minaa Basra 31.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 13, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Al Kahrabaa win · 2–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 24/100

Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7450386

Closing Odds 2.85

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Al Kahrabaa win · Al Kahrabaa 2–1 Al Minaa Basra

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Iraqi League
Fixture: Al Kahrabaa vs Al Minaa Basra
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Al Kahrabaa 1.26 — Al Minaa Basra 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Iraqi League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al-Karma	8	6	2	0	20
2	Al Zawra'a	8	5	3	0	18
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	17
4	Newroz	8	4	3	1	15
5	Al Shorta	8	4	3	1	15
6	Naft	8	4	3	1	15
7	Al-Jolan SC	8	2	4	2	10
8	Duhok	8	1	6	1	9
9	Diyala	8	2	3	3	9
10	Al Minaa Basra	8	2	3	3	9
11	Zakho	8	2	3	3	9
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	8	1	5	2	8
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	1	5	2	8
14	Mosul	8	2	2	4	8
15	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	7
16	Al Kahrabaa	8	1	4	3	7
17	Al Talaba	8	1	4	3	7
18	Naft Maysan	8	1	4	3	7
19	Gharraf	8	1	2	5	5
20	Karbala	8	1	2	5	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al Zawra'a	8	15	3	+12	18
2	Al-Karma	8	14	5	+9	20
3	Newroz	8	13	4	+9	15
4	Diyala	8	13	14	-1	9
5	Erbil	8	12	3	+9	17
6	Duhok	8	11	11	0	9
7	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	8	11	12	-1	8
8	Al Karkh	8	10	14	-4	7
9	Al Shorta	8	9	4	+5	15
10	Naft	8	9	5	+4	15
11	Mosul	8	9	12	-3	8
12	Al Talaba	8	9	14	-5	7
13	Al-Jolan SC	8	8	9	-1	10
14	Al Minaa Basra	8	8	10	-2	9
15	Zakho	8	7	11	-4	9
16	Al Kahrabaa	8	6	10	-4	7
17	Naft Maysan	8	6	11	-5	7
18	Karbala	8	6	15	-9	5
19	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	4	5	-1	8
20	Gharraf	8	4	12	-8	5