The model missed the final outcome (Karbala win 1–0).
The model had projected Al Karkh at 44.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Al Karkh Karbala ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Al Karkh; match finished Karbala
Market lesson
The full-time result was Karbala win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Karbala 1.11 — Al Karkh 1.49
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Karbala win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Karbala win · Karbala 1–0 Al Karkh
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Iraqi League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Newroz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Al Zawra'a | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Erbil | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 5 | Naft | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Shorta | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Duhok | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Minaa Basra | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Al-Jolan SC | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Diyala | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 12 | Zakho | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 13 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Al Kahrabaa | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Al Talaba | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 16 | Naft Maysan | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 17 | Mosul | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | Al Karkh | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 19 | Gharraf | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 20 | Karbala | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 9 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 | Al Zawra'a | 9 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Newroz | 9 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 | Duhok | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 9 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 | Erbil | 9 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 18 |
| 7 | Diyala | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Karkh | 9 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 |
| 9 | Naft | 9 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 18 |
| 10 | Al Minaa Basra | 9 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Shorta | 9 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 16 |
| 12 | Al Talaba | 9 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Mosul | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Al-Jolan SC | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Zakho | 9 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Naft Maysan | 9 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Al Kahrabaa | 9 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Karbala | 9 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 |
| 19 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 9 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 20 | Gharraf | 9 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
