Prediction Audit: Duhok vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Duhok

Sep 03, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.21

1 1.39

xG Accuracy: 72%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

The model missed the final outcome (Duhok win 2–1).

The model had projected Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Al Quwa Al Jawiya Duhok ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Duhok	31.0%	33.5%	-2.5 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.5%	32.0%	-2.5 pp	Aligned
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	39.5%	34.5%	+5.0 pp	Aligned

The statistical model estimates Al Quwa Al Jawiya's win probability at 39.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.5%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Duhok win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Al Quwa Al Jawiya.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Al Quwa Al Jawiya; match finished Duhok

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al Quwa Al Jawiya by 5.0 percentage points (34.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 03, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Duhok 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 39.5%
- xG · Duhok 1.21 — Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.39
Sep 03, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Duhok 2.65 · Draw 2.78 · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Duhok 33.5% · Draw 32.0% · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 34.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 03, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Duhok 2.65 · Draw 2.78 · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Duhok 33.5% · Draw 32.0% · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 34.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 03, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Duhok win · 2–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 75/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 28, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5734882

Closing Odds 2.58

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Duhok win · Duhok 2–1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Iraqi League
Fixture: Duhok vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Kickoff: 2026-09-03 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
xG (showing): Duhok 1.21 — Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Iraqi League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al-Karma	8	6	2	0	20
2	Al Zawra'a	8	5	3	0	18
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	17
4	Newroz	8	4	3	1	15
5	Al Shorta	8	4	3	1	15
6	Naft	8	4	3	1	15
7	Al-Jolan SC	8	2	4	2	10
8	Duhok	8	1	6	1	9
9	Diyala	8	2	3	3	9
10	Al Minaa Basra	8	2	3	3	9
11	Zakho	8	2	3	3	9
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	8	1	5	2	8
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	1	5	2	8
14	Mosul	8	2	2	4	8
15	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	7
16	Al Kahrabaa	8	1	4	3	7
17	Al Talaba	8	1	4	3	7
18	Naft Maysan	8	1	4	3	7
19	Gharraf	8	1	2	5	5
20	Karbala	8	1	2	5	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al Zawra'a	8	15	3	+12	18
2	Al-Karma	8	14	5	+9	20
3	Newroz	8	13	4	+9	15
4	Diyala	8	13	14	-1	9
5	Erbil	8	12	3	+9	17
6	Duhok	8	11	11	0	9
7	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	8	11	12	-1	8
8	Al Karkh	8	10	14	-4	7
9	Al Shorta	8	9	4	+5	15
10	Naft	8	9	5	+4	15
11	Mosul	8	9	12	-3	8
12	Al Talaba	8	9	14	-5	7
13	Al-Jolan SC	8	8	9	-1	10
14	Al Minaa Basra	8	8	10	-2	9
15	Zakho	8	7	11	-4	9
16	Al Kahrabaa	8	6	10	-4	7
17	Naft Maysan	8	6	11	-5	7
18	Karbala	8	6	15	-9	5
19	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	4	5	-1	8
20	Gharraf	8	4	12	-8	5