The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Al Kahrabaa at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Al Kahrabaa Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Kahrabaa | 35.2% | 40.4% | -5.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.1% | -0.5 pp | Aligned |
| Gharraf | 35.2% | 29.4% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Gharraf's win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.4%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Gharraf.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Al Kahrabaa; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al Kahrabaa by 5.7 percentage points (29.5% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Kahrabaa 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Gharraf 35.2%
- xG · Al Kahrabaa 1.30 — Gharraf 1.30
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Kahrabaa 2.20 · Draw 2.95 · Gharraf 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Al Kahrabaa 40.4% · Draw 30.1% · Gharraf 29.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Kahrabaa 2.20 · Draw 2.95 · Gharraf 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Al Kahrabaa 40.4% · Draw 30.1% · Gharraf 29.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Iraqi League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 2 | Al Zawra'a | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Erbil | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Naft | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Shorta | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Newroz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Zakho | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Al Talaba | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Duhok | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Diyala | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Mosul | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Al Minaa Basra | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 15 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 | Al Kahrabaa | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 17 | Naft Maysan | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 18 | Karbala | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | Gharraf | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Al Karkh | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Zawra'a | 7 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 15 |
| 2 | Newroz | 7 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 11 |
| 3 | Al-Karma | 7 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | Diyala | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 5 | Duhok | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Erbil | 7 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Mosul | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Naft | 7 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Shorta | 7 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Minaa Basra | 7 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Zakho | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Al Talaba | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Al Karkh | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Al-Jolan SC | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Al Kahrabaa | 7 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Karbala | 7 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 7 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 7 |
| 20 | Gharraf | 7 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 |
