Predictions / Football / Iraq. Iraqi League / Al Shorta vs Mosul

Prediction Audit: Al Shorta vs Mosul Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Shorta Al Shorta
Aug 30, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.46
0 1.14
xG Accuracy: 63%
Mosul Mosul

AI correctly predicted the Al Shorta win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al Shorta Al Shorta ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Al Shorta win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 24, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Al Shorta 1.46 — Mosul 1.14
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Al Shorta win · 2–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5303212

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Al Shorta win · Al Shorta 2–0 Mosul
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Iraqi League
  • Fixture: Al Shorta vs Mosul
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Al Shorta 1.46 — Mosul 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Iraqi League Iraqi League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 20
2 Al Zawra'a 8 5 3 0 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 15
6 Naft 8 4 3 1 15
7 Al-Jolan SC 8 2 4 2 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 9
10 Al Minaa Basra 8 2 3 3 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 8
14 Mosul 8 2 2 4 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 7
16 Al Kahrabaa 8 1 4 3 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 7
18 Naft Maysan 8 1 4 3 7
19 Gharraf 8 1 2 5 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Zawra'a 8 15 3 +12 18
2 Al-Karma 8 14 5 +9 20
3 Newroz 8 13 4 +9 15
4 Diyala 8 13 14 -1 9
5 Erbil 8 12 3 +9 17
6 Duhok 8 11 11 0 9
7 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 11 12 -1 8
8 Al Karkh 8 10 14 -4 7
9 Al Shorta 8 9 4 +5 15
10 Naft 8 9 5 +4 15
11 Mosul 8 9 12 -3 8
12 Al Talaba 8 9 14 -5 7
13 Al-Jolan SC 8 8 9 -1 10
14 Al Minaa Basra 8 8 10 -2 9
15 Zakho 8 7 11 -4 9
16 Al Kahrabaa 8 6 10 -4 7
17 Naft Maysan 8 6 11 -5 7
18 Karbala 8 6 15 -9 5
19 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 4 5 -1 8
20 Gharraf 8 4 12 -8 5