Prediction Audit: Al Minaa Basra vs Gharraf Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Minaa Basra

Aug 26, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.35

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 45%

Gharraf

AI correctly predicted the Al Minaa Basra win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Al Minaa Basra Al Minaa Basra ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Al Minaa Basra	37.5%	42.5%	-5.0 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	33.4%	-3.8 pp	Aligned
Gharraf	32.9%	24.1%	+8.8 pp	Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Gharraf's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.1%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Al Minaa Basra win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Gharraf.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Al Minaa Basra more conservatively (28.7% vs model 37.5%, 8.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Al Minaa Basra win 3–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 26, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Minaa Basra 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Gharraf 32.9%
- xG · Al Minaa Basra 1.35 — Gharraf 1.25
Aug 26, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Minaa Basra 2.09 · Draw 2.66 · Gharraf 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Al Minaa Basra 42.5% · Draw 33.4% · Gharraf 24.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 26, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Minaa Basra 2.09 · Draw 2.66 · Gharraf 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Al Minaa Basra 42.5% · Draw 33.4% · Gharraf 24.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 26, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Al Minaa Basra win · 3–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 56/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4455280

Closing Odds 3.69

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Al Minaa Basra win · Al Minaa Basra 3–0 Gharraf

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Iraqi League
Fixture: Al Minaa Basra vs Gharraf
Kickoff: 2026-08-26 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Al Minaa Basra 1.35 — Gharraf 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Iraqi League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al-Karma	7	5	2	0	17
2	Al Zawra'a	7	4	3	0	15
3	Erbil	7	4	2	1	14
4	Naft	7	3	3	1	12
5	Al Shorta	7	3	3	1	12
6	Newroz	7	3	2	2	11
7	Al-Jolan SC	7	2	3	2	9
8	Zakho	7	2	3	2	9
9	Al Talaba	7	2	3	2	9
10	Duhok	7	1	5	1	8
11	Diyala	7	2	2	3	8
12	Mosul	7	2	2	3	8
13	Al Minaa Basra	7	2	2	3	8
14	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	7	1	4	2	7
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	7	1	4	2	7
16	Al Kahrabaa	7	1	4	2	7
17	Naft Maysan	7	1	4	2	7
18	Karbala	7	1	2	4	5
19	Gharraf	7	1	2	4	5
20	Al Karkh	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al Zawra'a	7	13	3	+10	15
2	Newroz	7	13	4	+9	11
3	Al-Karma	7	13	5	+8	17
4	Diyala	7	12	13	-1	8
5	Duhok	7	10	10	0	8
6	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	7	10	11	-1	7
7	Erbil	7	9	3	+6	14
8	Mosul	7	9	11	-2	8
9	Naft	7	8	5	+3	12
10	Al Shorta	7	7	4	+3	12
11	Al Minaa Basra	7	7	9	-2	8
12	Zakho	7	7	10	-3	9
13	Al Talaba	7	7	12	-5	9
14	Al Karkh	7	7	12	-5	4
15	Al-Jolan SC	7	6	7	-1	9
16	Al Kahrabaa	7	6	8	-2	7
17	Karbala	7	6	12	-6	5
18	Ghaz Al Shamal	7	4	5	-1	7
19	Naft Maysan	7	4	8	-4	7
20	Gharraf	7	4	10	-6	5