The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Orbit College at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Orbit College Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orbit College | 36.1% | 40.6% | -4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.1% | -2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Hungry Lions | 34.2% | 27.3% | +6.9 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Hungry Lions's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.3%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Hungry Lions.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Orbit College; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Orbit College by 6.9 percentage points (29.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Orbit College 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Hungry Lions 34.2%
- xG · Orbit College 1.32 — Hungry Lions 1.28
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Orbit College 2.23 · Draw 2.82 · Hungry Lions 3.31
- Implied 1X2 · Orbit College 40.6% · Draw 32.1% · Hungry Lions 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Orbit College 2.23 · Draw 2.82 · Hungry Lions 3.31
- Implied 1X2 · Orbit College 40.6% · Draw 32.1% · Hungry Lions 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1st Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magesi | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Casric Stars | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Leicesterfield | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Highbury | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Hope FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Cape Town City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Upington City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Gomora United FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Lerumo Lions | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Hungry Lions | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | University of Pretoria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | NWU FC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | The Bees | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Orbit College | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Venda FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Upington City | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 2 | Leicesterfield | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 3 | Magesi | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Casric Stars | 5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cape Town City | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 6 | Hungry Lions | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Gomora United FC | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Lerumo Lions | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | University of Pretoria | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Highbury | 5 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 11 | Hope FC | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Venda FC | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 |
| 14 | NWU FC | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | The Bees | 5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Orbit College | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2 |
