Predictions / Football / India. Calcutta Premier Division / Bidhannagar vs United Kolkata

Prediction Audit: Bidhannagar vs United Kolkata Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Bidhannagar
Aug 18, 2026 - 09:30
2 1.24
2 1.36
xG Accuracy: 68%
United Kolkata United Kolkata

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected United Kolkata at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 United Kolkata Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned United Kolkata; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 00:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bidhannagar 1.24 — United Kolkata 1.36
  2. Aug 18, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 00:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4206017

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Bidhannagar 2–2 United Kolkata
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Calcutta Premier Division
  • Fixture: Bidhannagar vs United Kolkata
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-18 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Bidhannagar 1.24 — United Kolkata 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Calcutta Premier Division Calcutta Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 East Bengal 14 9 5 0 32
2 Bhawanipore 14 9 4 1 31
3 Mohun Bagan 14 9 3 2 30
4 Mohammedan 14 7 4 3 25
5 United 14 6 5 3 23
6 Coal India 14 6 4 4 22
7 Peerless 11 6 2 3 20
8 Aryan 11 5 4 2 19
9 Calcutta Customs 11 5 3 3 18
10 Calcutta Police 11 5 3 3 18
11 Police 11 4 5 2 17
12 United Kolkata 11 4 4 3 16
13 Measurers 11 3 6 2 15
14 Kalighat 11 4 2 5 14
15 Railway 11 4 2 5 14
16 Kidderpore 11 2 6 3 12
17 BSS Sporting 11 3 3 5 12
18 Patha Chakra 11 3 1 7 10
19 NA Suruchi Sangha 11 2 3 6 9
20 Rainbow 11 2 1 8 7
21 Wari 11 1 4 6 7
22 George Telegraph 11 2 1 8 7
23 Kalighat Club 11 0 3 8 3
24 Bidhannagar 11 0 2 9 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 East Bengal 14 35 8 +27 32
2 Mohun Bagan 14 35 10 +25 30
3 United 14 25 10 +15 23
4 Bhawanipore 14 24 7 +17 31
5 Calcutta Customs 11 24 12 +12 18
6 Mohammedan 14 23 16 +7 25
7 United Kolkata 11 22 16 +6 16
8 Measurers 11 21 17 +4 15
9 Peerless 11 20 9 +11 20
10 Railway 11 20 20 0 14
11 Coal India 14 19 22 -3 22
12 Aryan 11 18 6 +12 19
13 Kalighat 11 18 13 +5 14
14 BSS Sporting 11 17 21 -4 12
15 Kidderpore 11 15 18 -3 12
16 Calcutta Police 11 13 11 +2 18
17 Police 11 13 11 +2 17
18 Rainbow 11 13 31 -18 7
19 Patha Chakra 11 12 32 -20 10
20 NA Suruchi Sangha 11 11 20 -9 9
21 Wari 11 9 28 -19 7
22 George Telegraph 11 7 33 -26 7
23 Bidhannagar 11 5 31 -26 2
24 Kalighat Club 11 4 21 -17 3