AI correctly predicted the Slovácko W win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Slovácko W Slovácko W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktoria Plzeň W | 26.6% | 44.9% | -18.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.0% | 20.8% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Slovácko W | 44.3% | 34.3% | +10.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Viktoria Plzeň W's win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 26.6%, a difference of 18.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Slovácko W win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Viktoria Plzeň W than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Slovácko W attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Slovácko W higher (62.6% vs model 44.3%, 18.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Slovácko W win 1–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Viktoria Plzeň W 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Slovácko W 44.3%
- xG · Viktoria Plzeň W 1.11 — Slovácko W 1.49
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:43 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Viktoria Plzeň W 2.00 · Draw 4.33 · Slovácko W 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Viktoria Plzeň W 44.9% · Draw 20.8% · Slovácko W 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Viktoria Plzeň W 2.00 · Draw 4.33 · Slovácko W 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Viktoria Plzeň W 44.9% · Draw 20.8% · Slovácko W 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Slovácko W win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Liga Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha W | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Prague Raptors W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Viktoria Plzeň W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Baník Ostrava W | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Slovácko W | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Horní Heršpice W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha W | 7 | 40 | 1 | +39 | 21 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha W | 7 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 15 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec W | 6 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | Baník Ostrava W | 7 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 4 |
| 5 | Prague Raptors W | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 | Viktoria Plzeň W | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 9 |
| 7 | Slovácko W | 6 | 2 | 19 | -17 | 4 |
| 8 | Horní Heršpice W | 7 | 0 | 25 | -25 | 0 |
