The model missed the final outcome (Slavia Praha W win 1–2).
The model had projected Sparta Praha W at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Sparta Praha W Slavia Praha W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Praha W | 36.6% | 39.3% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.9% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Slavia Praha W | 33.8% | 34.8% | -1.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Slavia Praha W win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Sparta Praha W; match finished Slavia Praha W
Market lesson
The full-time result was Slavia Praha W win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sparta Praha W 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Slavia Praha W 33.8%
- xG · Sparta Praha W 1.33 — Slavia Praha W 1.27
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sparta Praha W 2.30 · Draw 3.50 · Slavia Praha W 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Sparta Praha W 39.3% · Draw 25.9% · Slavia Praha W 34.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sparta Praha W 2.30 · Draw 3.50 · Slavia Praha W 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Sparta Praha W 39.3% · Draw 25.9% · Slavia Praha W 34.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Slavia Praha W win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Liga Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha W | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Prague Raptors W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Viktoria Plzeň W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Baník Ostrava W | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Slovácko W | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Horní Heršpice W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha W | 7 | 40 | 1 | +39 | 21 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha W | 7 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 15 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec W | 6 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | Baník Ostrava W | 7 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 4 |
| 5 | Prague Raptors W | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 | Viktoria Plzeň W | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 9 |
| 7 | Slovácko W | 6 | 2 | 19 | -17 | 4 |
| 8 | Horní Heršpice W | 7 | 0 | 25 | -25 | 0 |
