Prediction Audit: Varnsdorf vs Ústí nad Labem Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Varnsdorf

Aug 25, 2026 - 15:00

0(4) 1.26

0(3) 1.34

xG Accuracy: 49%

Ústí nad Labem

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Ústí nad Labem at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ústí nad Labem Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Varnsdorf	33.3%	16.8%	+16.5 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	19.5%	+10.1 pp	Model Edge
Ústí nad Labem	37.1%	63.7%	-26.6 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Ústí nad Labem's win probability at 63.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 26.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Ústí nad Labem; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ústí nad Labem by 26.6 percentage points (63.7% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 25, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Varnsdorf 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Ústí nad Labem 37.0%
- xG · Varnsdorf 1.26 — Ústí nad Labem 1.34
Aug 25, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Varnsdorf 5.28 · Draw 4.53 · Ústí nad Labem 1.39
- Implied 1X2 · Varnsdorf 16.8% · Draw 19.5% · Ústí nad Labem 63.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 25, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Varnsdorf 5.28 · Draw 4.53 · Ústí nad Labem 1.39
- Implied 1X2 · Varnsdorf 16.8% · Draw 19.5% · Ústí nad Labem 63.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 25, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (27 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4676766

Closing Odds 1.39

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Varnsdorf 0–0 Ústí nad Labem

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Cup
Fixture: Varnsdorf vs Ústí nad Labem
Kickoff: 2026-08-25 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Varnsdorf 1.26 — Ústí nad Labem 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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