Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. Cup / Admira Praha vs Táborsko

Prediction Audit: Admira Praha vs Táborsko Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Admira Praha Admira Praha
Aug 26, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.25
4 1.35
xG Accuracy: 34%
Táborsko Táborsko

AI correctly predicted the Táborsko win.

The match finished 0–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Táborsko Táborsko ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Táborsko higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Táborsko -29.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Admira Praha 32.9% 14.2% +18.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 18.7% +10.9 pp Model Edge
Táborsko 37.5% 67.1% -29.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Táborsko's win probability at 67.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 29.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Táborsko win 0–4).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Táborsko higher (67.1% vs model 37.5%, 29.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Táborsko win 0–4).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Admira Praha 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Táborsko 37.6%
    • xG · Admira Praha 1.25 — Táborsko 1.35
  2. Aug 26, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Admira Praha 6.24 · Draw 4.75 · Táborsko 1.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Admira Praha 14.2% · Draw 18.7% · Táborsko 67.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Admira Praha 6.24 · Draw 4.75 · Táborsko 1.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Admira Praha 14.2% · Draw 18.7% · Táborsko 67.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Táborsko win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (30 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4676150

Closing Odds 1.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Táborsko win · Admira Praha 0–4 Táborsko
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: Admira Praha vs Táborsko
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-26 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Admira Praha 1.25 — Táborsko 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Cup Matches Track Admira Praha Next Match Prediction Track Táborsko Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Admira Praha & Táborsko!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Cup Czech-Republic. Cup Predictions