The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Kabuscorp at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Kabuscorp Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kabuscorp | 35.2% | 52.0% | -16.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.0% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
| CD Lunda-Sul | 35.2% | 18.9% | +16.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Kabuscorp's win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 16.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Kabuscorp than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Kabuscorp; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kabuscorp by 16.9 percentage points (52.1% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kabuscorp 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · CD Lunda-Sul 35.2%
- xG · Kabuscorp 1.30 — CD Lunda-Sul 1.30
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kabuscorp 1.73 · Draw 3.10 · CD Lunda-Sul 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Kabuscorp 52.0% · Draw 29.0% · CD Lunda-Sul 18.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kabuscorp 1.73 · Draw 3.10 · CD Lunda-Sul 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Kabuscorp 52.0% · Draw 29.0% · CD Lunda-Sul 18.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Girabola — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | 1º de Agosto | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Onze Bravos | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Petro de Luanda | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Interclube | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Desportivo Huíla | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | 1º de Maio | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Recreativo do Libolo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Kabuscorp | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | CD Lunda-Sul | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Recreativo da Caála | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | FC Luanda | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | São Salvador | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Sagrada Esperança | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 5 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | 1º de Agosto | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 | Onze Bravos | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Petro de Luanda | 4 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Interclube | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | 1º de Maio | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Desportivo Huíla | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Recreativo da Caála | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | FC Luanda | 5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Recreativo do Libolo | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | CD Lunda-Sul | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Sagrada Esperança | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | Sporting de Cabinda | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2 |
| 15 | São Salvador | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 5 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 0 |
