AI correctly predicted the Fundación Lara Deportiva win.
The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Fundación Lara Deportiva Fundación Lara Deportiva ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundación Lara Deportiva | 37.5% | 59.1% | -21.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.5% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Club Atletico Barinas | 32.9% | 18.4% | +14.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Fundación Lara Deportiva's win probability at 59.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 21.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Fundación Lara Deportiva win 5–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Fundación Lara Deportiva higher (59.1% vs model 37.5%, 21.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Fundación Lara Deportiva win 5–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Club Atletico Barinas 32.9%
- xG · Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.35 — Club Atletico Barinas 1.25
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.50 · Draw 3.94 · Club Atletico Barinas 4.83
- Implied 1X2 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 59.1% · Draw 22.5% · Club Atletico Barinas 18.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.50 · Draw 3.94 · Club Atletico Barinas 4.83
- Implied 1X2 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 59.1% · Draw 22.5% · Club Atletico Barinas 18.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fundación Lara Deportiva win · 5–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 60 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 45 |
| 4 | Yaracuyanos FC | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 5 | Zamora FC B | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello II | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 31 |
| 8 | Club Atletico Barinas | 28 | 9 | 4 | 15 | 31 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 28 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Barinas | 28 | 49 | 59 | -10 | 31 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 27 | 48 | 27 | +21 | 50 |
| 3 | Deportivo Lara | 27 | 46 | 20 | +26 | 60 |
| 4 | Zamora FC B | 27 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 40 |
| 5 | Urena SC | 28 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 45 |
| 6 | Puerto Cabello II | 28 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 31 |
| 7 | Yaracuyanos FC | 27 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 40 |
| 8 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 28 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 28 | 22 | 62 | -40 | 12 |
