Predictions / Football / Brazil. Pernambucano - U20 / America PE U20 vs Nautico U20

Prediction Audit: America PE U20 vs Nautico U20 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

America PE U20 America PE U20
Aug 26, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.16
1 1.44
xG Accuracy: 70%
Nautico U20 Nautico U20

The model missed the final outcome (America PE U20 win 2–1).

The model had projected Nautico U20 at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nautico U20 America PE U20 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Nautico U20 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Nautico U20 -22.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
America PE U20 28.8% 16.2% +12.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.3% 19.6% +9.7 pp Model Higher
Nautico U20 41.9% 64.2% -22.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Nautico U20's win probability at 64.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 22.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was America PE U20 win 2–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Nautico U20; match finished America PE U20

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Nautico U20 by 22.4 percentage points (64.2% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 26, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · America PE U20 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Nautico U20 41.9%
    • xG · America PE U20 1.16 — Nautico U20 1.44
  2. Aug 26, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · America PE U20 5.47 · Draw 4.53 · Nautico U20 1.38
    • Implied 1X2 · America PE U20 16.2% · Draw 19.6% · Nautico U20 64.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 26, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · America PE U20 5.47 · Draw 4.53 · Nautico U20 1.38
    • Implied 1X2 · America PE U20 16.2% · Draw 19.6% · Nautico U20 64.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result America PE U20 win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 08:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4700690

Closing Odds 1.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result America PE U20 win · America PE U20 2–1 Nautico U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Pernambucano - U20
  • Fixture: America PE U20 vs Nautico U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-26 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
  • xG (showing): America PE U20 1.16 — Nautico U20 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Pernambucano - U20 Pernambucano - U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Santa Cruz U20 8 6 2 0 20
1 Sport Recife U20 6 5 0 1 15
2 Retrô U20 8 5 2 1 17
2 Nautico U20 6 5 0 1 15
3 Ipojuca U20 8 4 3 1 15
3 Academica Vitoria U20 6 5 0 1 15
4 CA Porto U20 8 4 2 2 14
4 Petrolina U20 6 3 1 2 10
5 Central SC U20 8 3 3 2 12
5 America PE U20 6 3 0 3 9
6 1º de Maio U20 8 2 2 4 8
6 Serrano PE U20 6 1 2 3 5
7 Ibis Sport Club U20 8 2 1 5 7
7 Jaguar U20 6 0 1 5 1
8 Atletico PE U20 8 0 3 5 3
8 Guarany U20 6 0 0 6 0
9 Atletico Torres U20 8 0 2 6 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Santa Cruz U20 8 31 2 +29 20
2 Retrô U20 8 20 4 +16 17
3 Sport Recife U20 6 19 2 +17 15
4 Nautico U20 6 16 5 +11 15
5 America PE U20 6 16 6 +10 9
6 CA Porto U20 8 15 3 +12 14
7 Ipojuca U20 8 14 9 +5 15
8 Central SC U20 8 14 9 +5 12
9 Academica Vitoria U20 6 12 6 +6 15
10 Ibis Sport Club U20 8 10 20 -10 7
11 1º de Maio U20 8 8 19 -11 8
12 Petrolina U20 6 6 7 -1 10
13 Atletico PE U20 8 6 30 -24 3
14 Serrano PE U20 6 4 7 -3 5
15 Jaguar U20 6 3 14 -11 1
16 Atletico Torres U20 8 2 24 -22 2
17 Guarany U20 6 2 31 -29 0