Prediction Audit: Al Minaa Basra vs Zakho Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Minaa Basra

Aug 20, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.29

1 1.31

xG Accuracy: 76%

Zakho

The model missed the final outcome (Al Minaa Basra win 2–1).

The model had projected Zakho at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Zakho Al Minaa Basra ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Al Minaa Basra	34.7%	18.1%	+16.6 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	40.0%	-10.3 pp	Market Higher
Zakho	35.6%	41.9%	-6.2 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Al Minaa Basra's win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.1%, a difference of 16.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Al Minaa Basra win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Al Minaa Basra.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Zakho; match finished Al Minaa Basra

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Zakho by 16.6 percentage points (19.0% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Minaa Basra 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Zakho 35.6%
- xG · Al Minaa Basra 1.29 — Zakho 1.31
Aug 20, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Minaa Basra 4.88 · Draw 2.21 · Zakho 2.11
- Implied 1X2 · Al Minaa Basra 18.1% · Draw 40.0% · Zakho 41.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Minaa Basra 4.88 · Draw 2.21 · Zakho 2.11
- Implied 1X2 · Al Minaa Basra 18.1% · Draw 40.0% · Zakho 41.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Al Minaa Basra win · 2–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (17 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4024840

Closing Odds 4.88

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Al Minaa Basra win · Al Minaa Basra 2–1 Zakho

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Iraqi League
Fixture: Al Minaa Basra vs Zakho
Kickoff: 2026-08-20 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Al Minaa Basra 1.29 — Zakho 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Iraqi League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al-Karma	8	6	2	0	20
2	Al Zawra'a	8	5	3	0	18
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	17
4	Newroz	8	4	3	1	15
5	Al Shorta	8	4	3	1	15
6	Naft	8	4	3	1	15
7	Al-Jolan SC	8	2	4	2	10
8	Duhok	8	1	6	1	9
9	Diyala	8	2	3	3	9
10	Al Minaa Basra	8	2	3	3	9
11	Zakho	8	2	3	3	9
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	8	1	5	2	8
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	1	5	2	8
14	Mosul	8	2	2	4	8
15	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	7
16	Al Kahrabaa	8	1	4	3	7
17	Al Talaba	8	1	4	3	7
18	Naft Maysan	8	1	4	3	7
19	Gharraf	8	1	2	5	5
20	Karbala	8	1	2	5	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al Zawra'a	8	15	3	+12	18
2	Al-Karma	8	14	5	+9	20
3	Newroz	8	13	4	+9	15
4	Diyala	8	13	14	-1	9
5	Erbil	8	12	3	+9	17
6	Duhok	8	11	11	0	9
7	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	8	11	12	-1	8
8	Al Karkh	8	10	14	-4	7
9	Al Shorta	8	9	4	+5	15
10	Naft	8	9	5	+4	15
11	Mosul	8	9	12	-3	8
12	Al Talaba	8	9	14	-5	7
13	Al-Jolan SC	8	8	9	-1	10
14	Al Minaa Basra	8	8	10	-2	9
15	Zakho	8	7	11	-4	9
16	Al Kahrabaa	8	6	10	-4	7
17	Naft Maysan	8	6	11	-5	7
18	Karbala	8	6	15	-9	5
19	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	4	5	-1	8
20	Gharraf	8	4	12	-8	5