Predictions / Football / Iraq. Iraqi League / Erbil vs Al Kahrabaa

Prediction Audit: Erbil vs Al Kahrabaa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Erbil Erbil
Aug 16, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.46
0 1.14
xG Accuracy: 63%
Al Kahrabaa Al Kahrabaa

AI correctly predicted the Erbil win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Erbil Erbil ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Al Kahrabaa considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Al Kahrabaa +10.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Erbil 42.9% 49.2% -6.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 33.3% -4.1 pp Aligned
Al Kahrabaa 27.9% 17.5% +10.4 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Al Kahrabaa's win probability at 27.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 17.5%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Erbil win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Al Kahrabaa.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Erbil more conservatively (32.5% vs model 42.9%, 10.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Erbil win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Erbil 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Al Kahrabaa 27.9%
    • xG · Erbil 1.46 — Al Kahrabaa 1.14
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Erbil 1.81 · Draw 2.67 · Al Kahrabaa 5.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Erbil 49.2% · Draw 33.3% · Al Kahrabaa 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Erbil 1.81 · Draw 2.67 · Al Kahrabaa 5.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Erbil 49.2% · Draw 33.3% · Al Kahrabaa 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Erbil win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 47/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4035856

Closing Odds 5.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Erbil win · Erbil 2–0 Al Kahrabaa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Iraqi League
  • Fixture: Erbil vs Al Kahrabaa
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Erbil 1.46 — Al Kahrabaa 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Iraqi League Iraqi League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 20
2 Al Zawra'a 8 5 3 0 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 15
6 Naft 8 4 3 1 15
7 Al-Jolan SC 8 2 4 2 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 9
10 Al Minaa Basra 8 2 3 3 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 8
14 Mosul 8 2 2 4 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 7
16 Al Kahrabaa 8 1 4 3 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 7
18 Naft Maysan 8 1 4 3 7
19 Gharraf 8 1 2 5 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Zawra'a 8 15 3 +12 18
2 Al-Karma 8 14 5 +9 20
3 Newroz 8 13 4 +9 15
4 Diyala 8 13 14 -1 9
5 Erbil 8 12 3 +9 17
6 Duhok 8 11 11 0 9
7 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 11 12 -1 8
8 Al Karkh 8 10 14 -4 7
9 Al Shorta 8 9 4 +5 15
10 Naft 8 9 5 +4 15
11 Mosul 8 9 12 -3 8
12 Al Talaba 8 9 14 -5 7
13 Al-Jolan SC 8 8 9 -1 10
14 Al Minaa Basra 8 8 10 -2 9
15 Zakho 8 7 11 -4 9
16 Al Kahrabaa 8 6 10 -4 7
17 Naft Maysan 8 6 11 -5 7
18 Karbala 8 6 15 -9 5
19 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 4 5 -1 8
20 Gharraf 8 4 12 -8 5