Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Sporting Gijón II vs Llanera

Prediction Audit: Sporting Gijón II vs Llanera Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sporting Gijón II Sporting Gijón II
Aug 18, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 68%
Llanera Llanera

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Sporting Gijón II at 36.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sporting Gijón II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Llanera higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Llanera -5.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sporting Gijón II 36.4% 32.2% +4.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.1% 27.6% +1.6 pp Aligned
Llanera 34.5% 40.2% -5.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Llanera's win probability at 40.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.5%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Llanera. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sporting Gijón II; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sporting Gijón II by 5.7 percentage points (42.1% vs model 36.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 18, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sporting Gijón II 36.4% · Draw 29.1% · Llanera 34.5%
    • xG · Sporting Gijón II 1.32 — Llanera 1.28
  2. Aug 18, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sporting Gijón II 2.79 · Draw 3.26 · Llanera 2.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Sporting Gijón II 32.2% · Draw 27.6% · Llanera 40.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 18, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sporting Gijón II 2.79 · Draw 3.26 · Llanera 2.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Sporting Gijón II 32.2% · Draw 27.6% · Llanera 40.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 00:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4016863

Closing Odds 2.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sporting Gijón II 2–2 Llanera
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Sporting Gijón II vs Llanera
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-18 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.4% · Draw 29.1% · Away 34.5%
  • xG (showing): Sporting Gijón II 1.32 — Llanera 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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