Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Badalona II vs Espanyol II

Prediction Audit: Badalona II vs Espanyol II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Badalona II Badalona II
Aug 15, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 57%
Espanyol II Espanyol II

The model missed the final outcome (Espanyol II win 0–2).

The model had projected Badalona II at 35.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Badalona II Espanyol II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Badalona II considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Badalona II +8.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Badalona II 35.8% 27.2% +8.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 32.8% -3.4 pp Aligned
Espanyol II 34.8% 40.0% -5.2 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Badalona II's win probability at 35.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.2%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Espanyol II win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Badalona II.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Badalona II; match finished Espanyol II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Badalona II by 8.6 percentage points (27.2% vs model 35.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Badalona II 35.7% · Draw 29.4% · Espanyol II 34.9%
    • xG · Badalona II 1.31 — Espanyol II 1.29
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Badalona II 3.27 · Draw 2.71 · Espanyol II 2.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Badalona II 27.2% · Draw 32.8% · Espanyol II 40.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Badalona II 3.27 · Draw 2.71 · Espanyol II 2.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Badalona II 27.2% · Draw 32.8% · Espanyol II 40.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Espanyol II win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4030073

Closing Odds 3.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Espanyol II win · Badalona II 0–2 Espanyol II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Badalona II vs Espanyol II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.7% · Draw 29.4% · Away 34.8%
  • xG (showing): Badalona II 1.31 — Espanyol II 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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