Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Sabah FA vs Persib Bandung

Prediction Audit: Sabah FA vs Persib Bandung Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sabah FA Sabah FA
Aug 15, 2026 - 12:30
0 1.33
3 1.27
xG Accuracy: 43%
Persib Bandung Persib Bandung

The model missed the final outcome (Persib Bandung win 0–3).

The model had projected Sabah FA at 36.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sabah FA Persib Bandung ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Persib Bandung higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Persib Bandung -17.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sabah FA 36.7% 23.6% +13.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.4% 25.5% +3.9 pp Aligned
Persib Bandung 33.9% 51.0% -17.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Persib Bandung's win probability at 51.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.9%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Persib Bandung win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Persib Bandung than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sabah FA by 17.1 percentage points (53.8% vs model 36.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sabah FA 36.7% · Draw 29.4% · Persib Bandung 33.9%
    • xG · Sabah FA 1.33 — Persib Bandung 1.27
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sabah FA 3.73 · Draw 3.38 · Persib Bandung 1.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Sabah FA 22.7% · Draw 25.1% · Persib Bandung 52.3%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sabah FA 3.70 · Draw 3.42 · Persib Bandung 1.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Sabah FA 23.6% · Draw 25.5% · Persib Bandung 51.0%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Persib Bandung win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4025631

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Persib Bandung win · Sabah FA 0–3 Persib Bandung
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Sabah FA vs Persib Bandung
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.7% · Draw 29.4% · Away 33.9%
  • xG (showing): Sabah FA 1.33 — Persib Bandung 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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