Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Mallorca II vs Atlético Baleares

Prediction Audit: Mallorca II vs Atlético Baleares Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mallorca II Mallorca II
Aug 15, 2026 - 08:00
1 1.34
3 1.26
xG Accuracy: 56%
Atlético Baleares Atlético Baleares

The model missed the final outcome (Atlético Baleares win 1–3).

The model had projected Mallorca II at 37.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mallorca II Atlético Baleares ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Atlético Baleares higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Atlético Baleares -8.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mallorca II 37.2% 29.2% +8.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 29.1% +0.3 pp Aligned
Atlético Baleares 33.4% 41.7% -8.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Atlético Baleares's win probability at 41.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.4%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Atlético Baleares win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Atlético Baleares. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Mallorca II; match finished Atlético Baleares

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mallorca II by 8.2 percentage points (45.4% vs model 37.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mallorca II 37.2% · Draw 29.4% · Atlético Baleares 33.4%
    • xG · Mallorca II 1.34 — Atlético Baleares 1.26
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 07:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mallorca II 3.04 · Draw 3.05 · Atlético Baleares 2.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Mallorca II 29.2% · Draw 29.1% · Atlético Baleares 41.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mallorca II 3.04 · Draw 3.05 · Atlético Baleares 2.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Mallorca II 29.2% · Draw 29.1% · Atlético Baleares 41.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Atlético Baleares win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4021739

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Atlético Baleares win · Mallorca II 1–3 Atlético Baleares
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Mallorca II vs Atlético Baleares
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.2% · Draw 29.4% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Mallorca II 1.34 — Atlético Baleares 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Friendlies Clubs Matches Track Mallorca II Next Match Prediction Track Atlético Baleares Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Mallorca II & Atlético Baleares!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Friendlies Clubs World. Friendlies Clubs Predictions