The model missed the final outcome (Sturm Graz W win 3–5).
The model had projected Gintra-Universitetas at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Gintra-Universitetas Sturm Graz W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-5 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gintra-Universitetas | 36.6% | 30.3% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.5% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Sturm Graz W | 33.8% | 45.2% | -11.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Sturm Graz W's win probability at 45.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 11.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Sturm Graz W win 3–5.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Sturm Graz W than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Gintra-Universitetas; match finished Sturm Graz W
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Gintra-Universitetas by 11.5 percentage points (48.1% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gintra-Universitetas 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Sturm Graz W 33.8%
- xG · Gintra-Universitetas 1.33 — Sturm Graz W 1.27
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gintra-Universitetas 2.93 · Draw 3.62 · Sturm Graz W 1.96
- Implied 1X2 · Gintra-Universitetas 30.3% · Draw 24.5% · Sturm Graz W 45.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gintra-Universitetas 2.93 · Draw 3.62 · Sturm Graz W 1.96
- Implied 1X2 · Gintra-Universitetas 30.3% · Draw 24.5% · Sturm Graz W 45.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sturm Graz W win · 3–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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