Predictions / Football / World. UEFA Europa Cup - Women / Csikszereda MC vs Breidablik W

Prediction Audit: Csikszereda MC vs Breidablik W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Csikszereda MC Csikszereda MC
Sep 02, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
Breidablik W Breidablik W

The model missed the final outcome (Breidablik W win 0–1).

The model had projected Csikszereda MC at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Csikszereda MC Breidablik W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Breidablik W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Breidablik W -42.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Csikszereda MC 37.1% 11.1% +26.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 13.1% +16.5 pp Model Edge
Breidablik W 33.3% 75.8% -42.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Breidablik W's win probability at 75.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 42.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Breidablik W win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Csikszereda MC; match finished Breidablik W

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Csikszereda MC by 42.5 percentage points (79.6% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Csikszereda MC 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Breidablik W 33.4%
    • xG · Csikszereda MC 1.34 — Breidablik W 1.26
  2. Sep 02, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Csikszereda MC 7.81 · Draw 6.58 · Breidablik W 1.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Csikszereda MC 11.1% · Draw 13.1% · Breidablik W 75.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 02, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Csikszereda MC 7.81 · Draw 6.58 · Breidablik W 1.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Csikszereda MC 11.1% · Draw 13.1% · Breidablik W 75.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 02, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Breidablik W win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 28/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (42 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5624197

Closing Odds 1.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Breidablik W win · Csikszereda MC 0–1 Breidablik W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Csikszereda MC; market prices Breidablik W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Csikszereda MC 1.34 xG vs Breidablik W 1.26 → Csikszereda MC 37.1%
  • Market: Breidablik W ~11.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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