AI correctly predicted the Chernomorets Balchik win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
B-
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Chernomorets Balchik Chernomorets Balchik ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Chernomorets Balchik attacking xG significantly stronger (1.66 vs 0.94)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Chernomorets Balchik win 1–0).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Chernomorets Balchik 1.66 — Svetkavitsa 14 0.94
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Chernomorets Balchik win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Chernomorets Balchik win · Chernomorets Balchik 1–0 Svetkavitsa 14
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Third League - Northeast — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volov Shumen | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Ludogorets III | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Chernomorets Balchik | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Chernolomets 1919 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Benkovski Isperih | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Cherno more II | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Riltsi | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Botev Novi Pazar | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Septemvri Tervel | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Olympic Varna | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 13 | Devnya 2005 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 15 | Dorostol | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Fratria II | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 17 | Ustrem Donchevo | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volov Shumen | 6 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 16 |
| 2 | Ludogorets III | 6 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 13 |
| 3 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 6 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympic Varna | 6 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 6 |
| 5 | Benkovski Isperih | 4 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 6 | Botev Novi Pazar | 5 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 8 |
| 7 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Ustrem Donchevo | 6 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 0 |
| 9 | Cherno more II | 5 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 9 |
| 10 | Chernolomets 1919 | 6 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 11 |
| 11 | Chernomorets Balchik | 5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 11 |
| 12 | Septemvri Tervel | 3 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 13 | Riltsi | 6 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 5 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 |
| 15 | Devnya 2005 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Fratria II | 6 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 1 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 1 |
