The model missed the final outcome (Botev Novi Pazar win 5–1).
The model had projected Ustrem Donchevo at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ustrem Donchevo Botev Novi Pazar ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Ustrem Donchevo; match finished Botev Novi Pazar
Market lesson
The full-time result was Botev Novi Pazar win 5–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Botev Novi Pazar 1.17 — Ustrem Donchevo 1.43
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Botev Novi Pazar win · 5–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Botev Novi Pazar win · Botev Novi Pazar 5–1 Ustrem Donchevo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Third League - Northeast — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volov Shumen | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Ludogorets III | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Chernolomets 1919 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Chernomorets Balchik | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 | Benkovski Isperih | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Cherno more II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Novi Pazar | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Riltsi | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Devnya 2005 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Fratria II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 14 | Olympic Varna | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 15 | Aksakovo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Ustrem Donchevo | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volov Shumen | 7 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 16 |
| 2 | Ludogorets III | 7 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 |
| 3 | Chernolomets 1919 | 7 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Olympic Varna | 7 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 8 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 16 |
| 6 | Benkovski Isperih | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 11 |
| 7 | Ustrem Donchevo | 8 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 1 |
| 8 | Septemvri Tervel | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 11 |
| 9 | Botev Novi Pazar | 6 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 7 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Cherno more II | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 12 | Chernomorets Balchik | 6 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 14 |
| 13 | Aksakovo | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 4 |
| 14 | Riltsi | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | Fratria II | 8 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Devnya 2005 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 6 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 |
