Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone H / Virtus Francavilla vs Gladiator

Prediction Audit: Virtus Francavilla vs Gladiator Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla
Sep 27, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 76%
Gladiator Gladiator

The model missed the final outcome (Virtus Francavilla win 2–1).

The model had projected Gladiator at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Gladiator Virtus Francavilla ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Virtus Francavilla higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Virtus Francavilla -26.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Virtus Francavilla 34.7% 61.3% -26.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.5% +7.2 pp Model Higher
Gladiator 35.6% 16.2% +19.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Virtus Francavilla's win probability at 61.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 26.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Virtus Francavilla win 2–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Gladiator; match finished Virtus Francavilla

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gladiator by 26.6 percentage points (62.2% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Virtus Francavilla 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Gladiator 35.6%
    • xG · Virtus Francavilla 1.29 — Gladiator 1.31
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Virtus Francavilla 1.45 · Draw 3.95 · Gladiator 5.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Virtus Francavilla 61.3% · Draw 22.5% · Gladiator 16.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Virtus Francavilla 1.45 · Draw 3.95 · Gladiator 5.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Virtus Francavilla 61.3% · Draw 22.5% · Gladiator 16.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Virtus Francavilla win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10095310

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Virtus Francavilla win · Virtus Francavilla 2–1 Gladiator
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie D - Girone H
  • Fixture: Virtus Francavilla vs Gladiator
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Virtus Francavilla 1.29 — Gladiator 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.3% · Probability edge: +5.5 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone H Serie D - Girone H — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Virtus Francavilla 4 4 0 0 12
2 Bisceglie 4 3 0 1 9
3 Gravina 4 2 2 0 8
4 Turris 4 2 2 0 8
5 Real Agro Aversa 4 2 1 1 7
6 Real Forio 2014 4 2 1 1 7
7 Nocerina 4 2 1 1 7
8 Martina Franca 4 2 0 2 6
9 Gladiator 4 2 0 2 6
10 Manfredonia 4 1 2 1 5
11 Nardò 4 1 2 1 5
12 USD Palmese 4 1 1 2 4
13 Melfi 4 1 1 2 4
14 Ebolitana 4 1 1 2 4
15 Francavilla 4 1 0 3 3
16 Brindisi 4 1 0 3 3
17 Ischia 4 0 1 3 1
18 Fidelis Andria 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Agro Aversa 4 9 7 +2 7
2 Virtus Francavilla 4 8 3 +5 12
3 Bisceglie 4 8 4 +4 9
4 Gravina 4 8 4 +4 8
5 Real Forio 2014 4 8 6 +2 7
6 Martina Franca 4 8 7 +1 6
7 Nocerina 4 8 8 0 7
8 Manfredonia 4 7 5 +2 5
9 Gladiator 4 7 8 -1 6
10 Turris 4 6 4 +2 8
11 USD Palmese 4 5 7 -2 4
12 Ischia 4 5 8 -3 1
13 Ebolitana 4 4 7 -3 4
14 Brindisi 4 4 8 -4 3
15 Fidelis Andria 4 4 8 -4 1
16 Nardò 4 3 4 -1 5
17 Francavilla 4 3 5 -2 3
18 Melfi 4 2 4 -2 4