AI correctly predicted the Turris win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Turris Turris ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turris | 35.2% | 54.2% | -19.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.3% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Fidelis Andria | 35.2% | 20.5% | +14.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Turris's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 19.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Turris win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Turris than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Turris higher (54.2% vs model 35.2%, 19.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Turris win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Turris 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Fidelis Andria 35.2%
- xG · Turris 1.30 — Fidelis Andria 1.30
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Turris 1.64 · Draw 3.51 · Fidelis Andria 4.34
- Implied 1X2 · Turris 54.2% · Draw 25.3% · Fidelis Andria 20.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Turris 1.64 · Draw 3.51 · Fidelis Andria 4.34
- Implied 1X2 · Turris 54.2% · Draw 25.3% · Fidelis Andria 20.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Turris win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Serie D - Girone H — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Bisceglie | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Gravina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Turris | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Real Agro Aversa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Real Forio 2014 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Nocerina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Martina Franca | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Gladiator | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Manfredonia | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Nardò | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | USD Palmese | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Melfi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Ebolitana | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Francavilla | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Brindisi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Ischia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Fidelis Andria | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Agro Aversa | 4 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 | Virtus Francavilla | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | Bisceglie | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Gravina | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 5 | Real Forio 2014 | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Martina Franca | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Nocerina | 4 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Manfredonia | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Gladiator | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Turris | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 11 | USD Palmese | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Ischia | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Brindisi | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Fidelis Andria | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Nardò | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 17 | Francavilla | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Melfi | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
