Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone E / Lucchese vs Robur Siena

Prediction Audit: Lucchese vs Robur Siena Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lucchese Lucchese
Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.25
2 1.35
xG Accuracy: 52%
Robur Siena Robur Siena

The model missed the final outcome (Lucchese win 3–2).

The model had projected Robur Siena at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Robur Siena Lucchese ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Lucchese higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Lucchese -7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lucchese 32.9% 39.9% -7.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.1% +1.6 pp Aligned
Robur Siena 37.5% 32.1% +5.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Lucchese's win probability at 39.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Lucchese win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Lucchese. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Robur Siena; match finished Lucchese
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Robur Siena by 7.0 percentage points (44.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lucchese 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Robur Siena 37.6%
    • xG · Lucchese 1.25 — Robur Siena 1.35
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:41 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lucchese 2.25 · Draw 3.20 · Robur Siena 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Lucchese 39.9% · Draw 28.1% · Robur Siena 32.1%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Lucchese 2.25 · Draw 3.20 · Robur Siena 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Lucchese 39.9% · Draw 28.1% · Robur Siena 32.1%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Lucchese win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10094735

Closing Odds 2.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lucchese win · Lucchese 3–2 Robur Siena
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D - Girone E
  • Fixture: Lucchese vs Robur Siena
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Lucchese 1.25 — Robur Siena 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone E Serie D - Girone E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gavorrano 4 3 1 0 10
2 Prato 4 3 1 0 10
3 Seravezza 4 2 1 1 7
4 Terranuova Traiana 4 2 1 1 7
5 Robur Siena 4 2 1 1 7
6 Scandicci 4 2 1 1 7
7 Lucchese 4 2 1 1 7
8 San Donato Tavarnelle 4 2 1 1 7
9 Flaminia 4 2 1 1 7
10 Tau Altopascio 4 2 0 2 6
11 Mezzolara 4 1 2 1 5
12 Ternana 4 1 1 2 4
13 Montevarchi Calcio 4 1 1 2 4
14 Sasso Marconi Zola 4 1 1 2 4
15 Progresso 4 1 0 3 3
16 Rondinella 4 0 2 2 2
17 Grassina 4 0 1 3 1
18 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Seravezza 4 10 3 +7 7
2 Terranuova Traiana 4 10 5 +5 7
3 Robur Siena 4 9 4 +5 7
4 Scandicci 4 8 5 +3 7
5 Lucchese 4 7 6 +1 7
6 Gavorrano 4 6 1 +5 10
7 Prato 4 6 2 +4 10
8 San Donato Tavarnelle 4 6 5 +1 7
9 Flaminia 4 6 7 -1 7
10 Montevarchi Calcio 4 6 7 -1 4
11 Tau Altopascio 4 6 10 -4 6
12 Ternana 4 5 4 +1 4
13 Sasso Marconi Zola 4 5 7 -2 4
14 Mezzolara 4 3 5 -2 5
15 Grassina 4 3 7 -4 1
16 Progresso 4 3 11 -8 3
17 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 4 2 7 -5 1
18 Rondinella 4 1 6 -5 2