Prediction Audit: Gavorrano vs Sasso Marconi Zola Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gavorrano

Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.29

1 1.31

xG Accuracy: 76%

Sasso Marconi Zola

The model missed the final outcome (Gavorrano win 2–1).

The model had projected Sasso Marconi Zola at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sasso Marconi Zola Gavorrano ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Gavorrano	34.7%	51.4%	-16.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	26.4%	+3.2 pp	Aligned
Sasso Marconi Zola	35.6%	22.2%	+13.4 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Gavorrano's win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 16.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Gavorrano win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Gavorrano than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Sasso Marconi Zola; match finished Gavorrano

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sasso Marconi Zola by 16.7 percentage points (52.3% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 27, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gavorrano 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Sasso Marconi Zola 35.6%
- xG · Gavorrano 1.29 — Sasso Marconi Zola 1.31
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:41 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gavorrano 1.75 · Draw 3.40 · Sasso Marconi Zola 4.05
- Implied 1X2 · Gavorrano 51.4% · Draw 26.4% · Sasso Marconi Zola 22.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Gavorrano 1.75 · Draw 3.40 · Sasso Marconi Zola 4.05
- Implied 1X2 · Gavorrano 51.4% · Draw 26.4% · Sasso Marconi Zola 22.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Gavorrano win · 2–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (17 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10094695

Closing Odds 1.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Gavorrano win · Gavorrano 2–1 Sasso Marconi Zola

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie D - Girone E
Fixture: Gavorrano vs Sasso Marconi Zola
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Gavorrano 1.29 — Sasso Marconi Zola 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Serie D - Girone E Matches Track Gavorrano Next Match Prediction Track Sasso Marconi Zola Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Gavorrano & Sasso Marconi Zola!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Serie D - Girone E — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Gavorrano	4	3	1	0	10
2	Prato	4	3	1	0	10
3	Seravezza	4	2	1	1	7
4	Terranuova Traiana	4	2	1	1	7
5	Robur Siena	4	2	1	1	7
6	Scandicci	4	2	1	1	7
7	Lucchese	4	2	1	1	7
8	San Donato Tavarnelle	4	2	1	1	7
9	Flaminia	4	2	1	1	7
10	Tau Altopascio	4	2	0	2	6
11	Mezzolara	4	1	2	1	5
12	Ternana	4	1	1	2	4
13	Montevarchi Calcio	4	1	1	2	4
14	Sasso Marconi Zola	4	1	1	2	4
15	Progresso	4	1	0	3	3
16	Rondinella	4	0	2	2	2
17	Grassina	4	0	1	3	1
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Seravezza	4	10	3	+7	7
2	Terranuova Traiana	4	10	5	+5	7
3	Robur Siena	4	9	4	+5	7
4	Scandicci	4	8	5	+3	7
5	Lucchese	4	7	6	+1	7
6	Gavorrano	4	6	1	+5	10
7	Prato	4	6	2	+4	10
8	San Donato Tavarnelle	4	6	5	+1	7
9	Flaminia	4	6	7	-1	7
10	Montevarchi Calcio	4	6	7	-1	4
11	Tau Altopascio	4	6	10	-4	6
12	Ternana	4	5	4	+1	4
13	Sasso Marconi Zola	4	5	7	-2	4
14	Mezzolara	4	3	5	-2	5
15	Grassina	4	3	7	-4	1
16	Progresso	4	3	11	-8	3
17	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	4	2	7	-5	1
18	Rondinella	4	1	6	-5	2