Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone E / Mezzolara vs Ternana

Prediction Audit: Mezzolara vs Ternana Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mezzolara Mezzolara
Sep 16, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
Ternana Ternana

AI correctly predicted the Mezzolara win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mezzolara Mezzolara ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ternana higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ternana -17.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mezzolara 36.1% 22.3% +13.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 26.2% +3.4 pp Aligned
Ternana 34.2% 51.5% -17.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Ternana's win probability at 51.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 17.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Mezzolara win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ternana than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mezzolara higher (53.4% vs model 36.1%, 17.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Mezzolara win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 16, 2026 · 12:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mezzolara 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Ternana 34.2%
    • xG · Mezzolara 1.32 — Ternana 1.28
  2. Sep 16, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mezzolara 4.00 · Draw 3.40 · Ternana 1.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Mezzolara 22.3% · Draw 26.2% · Ternana 51.5%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 16, 2026 · 12:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Mezzolara 4.00 · Draw 3.40 · Ternana 1.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Mezzolara 22.3% · Draw 26.2% · Ternana 51.5%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 16, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mezzolara win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 08:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7884383

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mezzolara win · Mezzolara 2–1 Ternana
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D - Girone E
  • Fixture: Mezzolara vs Ternana
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Mezzolara 1.32 — Ternana 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.9% · Probability edge: +4.3 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone E Serie D - Girone E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gavorrano 4 3 1 0 10
2 Prato 4 3 1 0 10
3 Seravezza 4 2 1 1 7
4 Terranuova Traiana 4 2 1 1 7
5 Robur Siena 4 2 1 1 7
6 Scandicci 4 2 1 1 7
7 Lucchese 4 2 1 1 7
8 San Donato Tavarnelle 4 2 1 1 7
9 Flaminia 4 2 1 1 7
10 Tau Altopascio 4 2 0 2 6
11 Mezzolara 4 1 2 1 5
12 Ternana 4 1 1 2 4
13 Montevarchi Calcio 4 1 1 2 4
14 Sasso Marconi Zola 4 1 1 2 4
15 Progresso 4 1 0 3 3
16 Rondinella 4 0 2 2 2
17 Grassina 4 0 1 3 1
18 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Seravezza 4 10 3 +7 7
2 Terranuova Traiana 4 10 5 +5 7
3 Robur Siena 4 9 4 +5 7
4 Scandicci 4 8 5 +3 7
5 Lucchese 4 7 6 +1 7
6 Gavorrano 4 6 1 +5 10
7 Prato 4 6 2 +4 10
8 San Donato Tavarnelle 4 6 5 +1 7
9 Flaminia 4 6 7 -1 7
10 Montevarchi Calcio 4 6 7 -1 4
11 Tau Altopascio 4 6 10 -4 6
12 Ternana 4 5 4 +1 4
13 Sasso Marconi Zola 4 5 7 -2 4
14 Mezzolara 4 3 5 -2 5
15 Grassina 4 3 7 -4 1
16 Progresso 4 3 11 -8 3
17 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 4 2 7 -5 1
18 Rondinella 4 1 6 -5 2
Serie D - Girone E Italy. Serie D - Girone E Predictions