Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie D - Girone E / Flaminia vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano

Prediction Audit: Flaminia vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Flaminia Flaminia
Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.43
0 1.17
xG Accuracy: 62%
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano

AI correctly predicted the Flaminia win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Flaminia Flaminia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Flaminia win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 07:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Flaminia 1.43 — Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 1.17
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Flaminia win · 2–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6358033

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Flaminia win · Flaminia 2–0 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D - Girone E
  • Fixture: Flaminia vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Flaminia 1.43 — Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone E Serie D - Girone E — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gavorrano 6 4 2 0 14
2 Prato 6 4 2 0 14
3 Lucchese 6 4 1 1 13
4 Tau Altopascio 6 4 0 2 12
5 Scandicci 6 3 2 1 11
6 Flaminia 6 3 2 1 11
7 Seravezza 6 3 1 2 10
8 Robur Siena 6 3 1 2 10
9 Ternana 6 2 2 2 8
10 Terranuova Traiana 6 2 2 2 8
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 6 2 2 2 8
12 Montevarchi Calcio 6 2 1 3 7
13 Mezzolara 6 1 4 1 7
14 Rondinella 6 1 2 3 5
15 Sasso Marconi Zola 6 1 1 4 4
16 Progresso 6 1 0 5 3
17 Grassina 6 0 2 4 2
18 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lucchese 6 16 11 +5 13
2 Seravezza 6 14 5 +9 10
3 Robur Siena 6 13 8 +5 10
4 Terranuova Traiana 6 11 9 +2 8
5 Scandicci 6 10 5 +5 11
6 Tau Altopascio 6 10 12 -2 12
7 Gavorrano 6 9 3 +6 14
8 Prato 6 9 4 +5 14
9 Ternana 6 9 5 +4 8
10 Flaminia 6 9 9 0 11
11 Montevarchi Calcio 6 9 11 -2 7
12 San Donato Tavarnelle 6 8 8 0 8
13 Sasso Marconi Zola 6 6 11 -5 4
14 Grassina 6 6 13 -7 2
15 Rondinella 6 5 10 -5 5
16 Mezzolara 6 4 6 -2 7
17 Progresso 6 4 15 -11 3
18 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 6 3 10 -7 1
Serie D - Girone E Italy. Serie D - Girone E Predictions