Prediction Audit: Licata vs Ragusa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Licata

Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.31

0 1.29

xG Accuracy: 64%

Ragusa

AI correctly predicted the Licata win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Licata Licata ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Licata win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 14, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Licata 1.31 — Ragusa 1.29
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Licata win · 1–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8674307

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Licata win · Licata 1–0 Ragusa

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie D - Girone I
Fixture: Licata vs Ragusa
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Licata 1.31 — Ragusa 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D - Girone I — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Reggina	4	4	0	0	12
2	Igea Virtus	4	3	1	0	10
3	Sambiase	4	3	1	0	10
4	Licata	5	2	2	1	8
5	Vibonese	4	2	1	1	7
6	Nissa	4	2	1	1	7
7	Digiesse PraiaTortora	4	1	3	0	6
8	Milazzo	4	2	0	2	6
9	Calcio Avola	4	2	0	2	6
10	CastrumFavara	4	1	1	2	4
11	Modica	4	1	1	2	4
12	AC Palermo	4	1	1	2	4
13	Gela	4	1	1	2	3
14	Ragusa	4	0	2	2	2
15	Vigor Lamezia	4	0	2	2	2
16	Siracusa	4	2	2	0	1
17	Enna	5	0	1	4	1
18	Trapani 1905	4	0	0	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Reggina	4	13	0	+13	12
2	Igea Virtus	4	13	8	+5	10
3	Vibonese	4	11	5	+6	7
4	Nissa	4	8	6	+2	7
5	Digiesse PraiaTortora	4	7	2	+5	6
6	Siracusa	4	7	4	+3	1
7	Calcio Avola	4	7	10	-3	6
8	Licata	5	6	7	-1	8
9	AC Palermo	4	6	8	-2	4
10	Sambiase	4	5	2	+3	10
11	CastrumFavara	4	5	4	+1	4
12	Milazzo	4	4	5	-1	6
13	Gela	4	4	5	-1	3
14	Ragusa	4	4	7	-3	2
15	Vigor Lamezia	4	4	9	-5	2
16	Modica	4	3	4	-1	4
17	Trapani 1905	4	1	10	-9
18	Enna	5	0	12	-12	1