The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Saluzzo at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Saluzzo Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saluzzo | 38.0% | 35.1% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.0% | -0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Derthona | 32.4% | 34.9% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Saluzzo 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Derthona 32.4%
- xG · Saluzzo 1.36 — Derthona 1.24
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Saluzzo 2.54 · Draw 2.97 · Derthona 2.55
- Implied 1X2 · Saluzzo 35.1% · Draw 30.0% · Derthona 34.9%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Saluzzo 2.54 · Draw 2.97 · Derthona 2.55
- Implied 1X2 · Saluzzo 35.1% · Draw 30.0% · Derthona 34.9%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Serie D - Girone A — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biellese | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 2 | Derthona | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Gozzano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Saluzzo | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Millesimo | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Alessandria | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Imperia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Asti | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Ligorna | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Lascaris | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Fezzanese | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Sanremese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Borgosesia | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Chisola | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Sestri Levante | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Bra | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ligorna | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Biellese | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 11 |
| 3 | Saluzzo | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Millesimo | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 5 | Gozzano | 5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | Alessandria | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | Derthona | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Fezzanese | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Asti | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sanremese | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Imperia | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 12 | Sestri Levante | 5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Valenzana | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Borgosesia | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Chisola | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Lascaris | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Bra | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
