Prediction Audit: Palermo U19 vs Bari U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Palermo U19

Sep 19, 2026 - 09:00

2 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 68%

Bari U19

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Palermo U19 at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Palermo U19 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Palermo U19	37.1%	39.0%	-2.0 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	26.4%	+3.2 pp	Aligned
Bari U19	33.3%	34.5%	-1.2 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 19, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Palermo U19 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Bari U19 33.4%
- xG · Palermo U19 1.34 — Bari U19 1.26
Sep 19, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Palermo U19 2.30 · Draw 3.40 · Bari U19 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Palermo U19 39.0% · Draw 26.4% · Bari U19 34.5%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 19, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Palermo U19 2.30 · Draw 3.40 · Bari U19 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Palermo U19 39.0% · Draw 26.4% · Bari U19 34.5%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 19, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 83/100

Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8674402

Closing Odds 3.4

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Palermo U19 2–2 Bari U19

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Campionato Primavera - 2
Fixture: Palermo U19 vs Bari U19
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Palermo U19 1.34 — Bari U19 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.6% · Probability edge: +4.2 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Campionato Primavera - 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Renate U19	3	2	1	0	7
1	Perugia U19	3	3	0	0	9
2	Vicenza U19	3	2	1	0	7
2	Catanzaro U19	3	3	0	0	9
3	Cremonese U19	3	2	0	1	6
3	Avellino U19	3	3	0	0	9
4	Virtus Entella U19	3	2	0	1	6
4	Bari U19	3	2	1	0	7
5	Padova U19	3	2	0	1	6
5	Palermo U19	3	2	1	0	7
6	Mantova U19	3	1	2	0	5
6	Benevento U19	3	2	0	1	6
7	Sampdoria U19	3	1	2	0	5
7	Spezia U19	3	1	1	1	4
8	Modena U19	3	1	1	1	4
8	Monopoli U19	3	1	1	1	4
9	Venezia U19	3	1	1	1	4
9	Pescara U19	3	1	1	1	4
10	Brescia U19	3	1	1	1	4
10	Latina U19	3	1	0	2	3
11	Cittadella U19	3	1	0	2	3
11	Pisa U19	3	1	0	2	3
12	Udinese U19	3	1	0	2	3
12	Ascoli U19	3	0	2	1	2
13	Sudtirol U19	3	0	2	1	2
13	Napoli U19	3	0	1	2	1
14	Reggiana U19	3	0	1	2	1
14	Frosinone U19	3	0	0	3	0
15	Pro Vercelli U19	3	0	1	2	1
15	Cosenza U19	3	0	0	3	0
16	Lecco U19	3	0	1	2	1
16	Salernitana U19	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Perugia U19	3	12	2	+10	9
2	Catanzaro U19	3	11	2	+9	9
3	Modena U19	3	10	8	+2	4
4	Benevento U19	3	9	3	+6	6
5	Avellino U19	3	8	3	+5	9
6	Renate U19	3	8	3	+5	7
7	Bari U19	3	8	3	+5	7
8	Palermo U19	3	8	5	+3	7
9	Cremonese U19	3	8	5	+3	6
10	Virtus Entella U19	3	8	5	+3	6
11	Cittadella U19	3	8	10	-2	3
12	Sampdoria U19	3	7	5	+2	5
13	Venezia U19	3	7	6	+1	4
14	Vicenza U19	3	6	1	+5	7
15	Padova U19	3	6	4	+2	6
16	Spezia U19	3	6	4	+2	4
17	Monopoli U19	3	6	5	+1	4
18	Pescara U19	3	6	6	0	4
19	Brescia U19	3	6	6	0	4
20	Latina U19	3	5	6	-1	3
21	Pisa U19	3	5	8	-3	3
22	Napoli U19	3	5	8	-3	1
23	Udinese U19	3	5	10	-5	3
24	Mantova U19	3	4	1	+3	5
25	Ascoli U19	3	4	5	-1	2
26	Frosinone U19	3	2	12	-10	0
27	Reggiana U19	3	1	4	-3	1
28	Lecco U19	3	1	8	-7	1
29	Cosenza U19	3	1	11	-10	0
30	Salernitana U19	3	1	14	-13	0
31	Sudtirol U19	3	0	3	-3	2
32	Pro Vercelli U19	3	0	6	-6	1