The model missed the final outcome (Renate U19 win 1–4).
The model had projected Lecco U19 at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Lecco U19 Renate U19 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecco U19 | 39.9% | 52.0% | -12.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.0% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Renate U19 | 30.6% | 24.0% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Lecco U19's win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Renate U19 win 1–4.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Lecco U19 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lecco U19 by 12.1 percentage points (52.0% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lecco U19 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Renate U19 30.6%
- xG · Lecco U19 1.40 — Renate U19 1.20
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lecco U19 1.73 · Draw 3.75 · Renate U19 3.75
- Implied 1X2 · Lecco U19 52.0% · Draw 24.0% · Renate U19 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lecco U19 1.73 · Draw 3.75 · Renate U19 3.75
- Implied 1X2 · Lecco U19 52.0% · Draw 24.0% · Renate U19 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Renate U19 win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Campionato Primavera - 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Virtus Entella U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Bari U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Padova U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Palermo U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Mantova U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Spezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Modena U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Monopoli U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Brescia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Latina U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Cittadella U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Udinese U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ascoli U19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sudtirol U19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Napoli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Salernitana U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | Modena U19 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 5 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Renate U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 | Bari U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 8 | Palermo U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Virtus Entella U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 11 | Cittadella U19 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 15 | Padova U19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 | Spezia U19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 17 | Monopoli U19 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Brescia U19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Latina U19 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli U19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Udinese U19 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 24 | Mantova U19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 25 | Ascoli U19 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 26 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
| 27 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 28 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 29 | Cosenza U19 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
| 30 | Salernitana U19 | 3 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 |
| 31 | Sudtirol U19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 32 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
